Americans are lowering the amount of pay they expect when taking a new job, reflecting growing concerns about the economy and job market.
According to new data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the average “reservation wage”—the minimum salary workers would accept for a new job—dropped sharply in March to $74,236. That’s a significant decline from $82,135 in November, which was the highest level recorded since the survey began. The decline was driven mostly by male respondents and workers aged 45 and older.
The survey also showed a broader sense of economic unease. Only 14.9% of respondents said they expected to receive at least one job offer in the next four months, down from 16.2% in November. Meanwhile, the perceived likelihood of losing one’s job over the next year rose to 15.7%, the highest figure since March 2024, especially among households earning under $50,000 a year.
Concerns about future job security were matched by a pessimistic view of the broader economy. The percentage of Americans who believe the unemployment rate will be higher a year from now jumped to 44%—a level not seen since April 2020. These concerns cut across all age, education, and income groups.
There is also a noticeable shift in how Americans view retirement. Fewer people now believe they’ll need to work into their older years. In March, 47.3% of respondents said they expected to work beyond age 62, down from 50.6% in November. The number of people who expect to work past age 67 also fell from 34% to 31.6%.
Analysts say the recent drop in wage expectations comes amid broader uncertainty tied to President Trump’s trade actions, which have included tariffs on foreign imports aimed at reshaping decades of trade imbalance. These measures, while designed to protect American industries, have led to retaliation from other countries and have disrupted global supply chains.
Federal Reserve officials have noted the possibility of higher inflation and slower growth in the short term. Some economists now believe that these economic adjustments could contribute to a higher risk of recession in the months ahead.
The International Monetary Fund recently raised its estimate of the likelihood of a U.S. recession to 37%, up from 25% earlier this year.
Meanwhile, the New York Fed also found declining satisfaction among workers with their current pay, benefits, and opportunities for advancement. Job satisfaction related to wage compensation is now at its lowest point since November 2021.
As American workers continue to adjust their expectations downward, the growing pessimism could spell further challenges for consumer confidence and spending—key drivers of the economy. With more workers settling for less and fearing job loss, the mood across the labor market appears increasingly uncertain.