CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten has delivered what he calls a “reality check” regarding former President Donald Trump’s popularity, presenting data that suggests Trump’s appeal is stronger than many may believe.
Speaking on Tuesday, Enten highlighted the significant percentage of Americans who believe the country is “on the right track.”
Citing recent polls from Marist and NBC News, Enten noted that 45% of Americans say the nation is on the right path, the second-highest figure recorded by Marist since 2009. NBC News recorded a similar sentiment from 44% of respondents, the highest measured since 2004.
Enten pointed out that these numbers are even more striking when considering past elections. “If you were to compare it to when presidents have historically been reelected… 42% of the country says the country is on the right track when the incumbent party is reelected,” he explained. He contrasted this with the low 27% to 28% who felt the country was on the right track during the Democrats’ loss of power under then-Vice President Kamala Harris.
Despite Trump’s net favorability rating currently standing at -4 points, Enten made a case that this rating is better than during key moments in Trump’s political career. Trump’s rating was at -7 when he secured his 2024 victory and -10 in March 2017, shortly after he assumed office.
“All we talk about is how unpopular Donald Trump is, but, in reality, he’s basically more popular than he was at any point in term number one and more popular than he was when he won election back in November of 2024,” Enten remarked.
Enten explained that Trump’s polling numbers have historically been underestimated, and his current ratings should be viewed in that context. “When you compare Trump against himself, he’s actually closer to the apex than he is to the bottom of the trough,” Enten explained.
Furthermore, Enten highlighted how the generic congressional ballot margin in March 2025 resembles the political landscape of years when Republicans emerged victorious in Congress.
Enten’s analysis offers a sobering reminder to skeptics: While Trump’s net favorability rating may be negative, the reality of his popularity is far more formidable than his critics are willing to admit.