For the first time in over a decade, U.S. obesity rates have declined, suggesting a possible shift in a long-standing public health concern.
According to a study published in JAMA Health Forum, the national obesity rate fell from 46% in 2022 to 45.6% in 2023. Though this drop is small, researchers say it’s significant after years of steady increases.
The study reviewed the body mass index (BMI) of 16.7 million American adults from 2013 to 2023.
For the past decade, the average BMI rose annually, reaching 30.24 in 2022 before falling slightly to 30.21 in 2023. A BMI of 30 or above is considered obese by medical standards. Though small, this decrease is the first documented drop in at least ten years.
Certain demographics appear to be leading the change.
Women, as well as adults aged 66 to 75, showed the largest decreases in obesity. Additionally, Americans living in the South—where the highest dispensing rate of a class of weight loss drugs known as GLP-1 receptor agonists was recorded—also saw a meaningful decline in obesity levels.
Experts point to the soaring popularity of medications like Ozempic and Wegovy, both of which contain the GLP-1 agonist semaglutide, as a possible factor.
A separate study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine found a staggering 700% increase in the use of these drugs from 2019 to 2023.
Originally intended for managing type 2 diabetes, these medications have gained traction for aiding in weight loss, potentially helping to drive down obesity numbers. However, researchers caution that prescription data alone can’t fully explain the trend.
Lifestyle shifts may also have played a role. Researchers suggest that many Americans altered their eating and exercise habits after the COVID-19 pandemic, resuming more active lifestyles as lockdowns eased.
In the South, where obesity and COVID-19 mortality rates were especially high, the pandemic’s impact may have motivated individuals to make healthier choices—either through medication, improved diet and exercise, or both.
Medical professionals stress that although these results are encouraging, they are still preliminary. It’s unclear whether the decrease will be sustained in the coming years.
“We need to see how this plays out over time,” said Dr. Anne Peters, a professor at the Keck School of Medicine. Peters also cautioned that BMI is only one measure of health and that broader lifestyle improvements remain critical. “You’ve got to combine weight loss with exercise and a healthier diet,” she said.
The declining obesity rate arrives as Washington debates how to handle the financial and policy implications of these medications.
Members of President-elect Donald Trump’s cabinet candidates have expressed differing views.
Some, like Elon Musk, who is advising on government efficiency, support making weight loss drugs cheaper and more accessible.
Others, like proposed Health and Human Services Secretary head nominee Robert F. Kennedy Jr., have voiced strong opposition, citing potential costs as high as “$3 trillion a year” if these drugs are offered universally.
Meanwhile, President Biden’s administration recently proposed expanding coverage of Ozempic and Wegovy under Medicaid and Medicare, adding another dimension to the national conversation.
With obesity remaining a top-tier public health concern—nearly 60% of Americans with obesity suffer from high blood pressure, and nearly a quarter have diabetes—any sustained improvement would be significant.
It remains to be seen whether the current downturn is a temporary blip or the beginning of a lasting trend, but for the first time in a long time, there are signs of hope on the horizon.