The final New York Times/Siena College Battleground poll reveals a razor-thin race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in key swing states.
The poll, conducted between October 24 and November 2, surveyed 7,879 likely voters across seven battleground states, showing the candidates locked in a tight contest.
Trump holds a narrow four-point lead in Arizona, a state crucial to his path to victory, with 49% support compared to Harris’s 45%. Meanwhile, Harris leads in Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, and Wisconsin, though by slim margins:
- Georgia: Harris 48%, Trump 47%
- North Carolina: Harris 48%, Trump 46%
- Nevada: Harris 49%, Trump 46%
- Wisconsin: Harris 49%, Trump 47%
In Michigan and Pennsylvania, the race is too close to call, with both candidates tied. Trump has gained momentum in Pennsylvania, a state where Harris previously held a four-point lead in earlier polls.
The poll found that 40% of respondents had already voted, with Harris leading among early voters by eight percentage points. Trump, however, holds the edge among those who plan to vote on Election Day but have not yet cast their ballots.
The poll also examined Senate races in these battleground states, where Democratic candidates are showing strong leads. Notably, Democrats are ahead in Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, and Wisconsin, with no Republican Senate candidates currently leading in these races.
Both Trump and Harris are making a final push in these critical states. Trump is scheduled to campaign in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia this weekend, while Harris will be focusing her efforts in Michigan.
With both candidates vying for a narrow lead, this election is shaping up to be one of the closest in recent memory. Voters in these battleground states will play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of the 2024 presidential race.