Former President Donald Trump has taken the lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Michigan and Wisconsin—according to recent polls conducted by Quinnipiac University.
Quinnipiac University, often considered a left-leaning polling institution, released surveys indicating that Trump has carved out a material lead in these key states.
In Michigan, Trump holds 50% support compared to Harris’s 47%, with 2% of respondents favoring other candidates.
The margin of error for this survey is +/- 3.1%, suggesting a notable advantage for Trump in a state that is pivotal for electoral success.
In Wisconsin, the poll shows Trump leading with 48% support against Harris’s 46%, and 2% supporting other candidates. The margin of error here is +/- 3.0%.
Tim Malloy, Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst, commented on the findings, stating, “The Harris post-debate starburst dims to a glow as Harris enters the last weeks slipping slightly in the Rust Belt.”
While Trump leads in Michigan and Wisconsin, the race in Pennsylvania remains tight.
Harris holds a slim lead with 49% support to Trump’s 46%, and 2% backing other candidates.
Given the margin of error of +/- 2.6% in Pennsylvania, this contest is effectively tied, keeping the state firmly in play for both candidates.
The shift in voter sentiment in the Rust Belt poses challenges for the Harris campaign.
Political analyst Mark Halperin discussed the internal concerns on “The Morning Meeting with Sean Spicer and Dan Turrentine,” noting that private Harris campaign polling shows her trailing in Wisconsin.
“There’s no path without Wisconsin,” Halperin explained. “Wisconsin and Michigan are looking worse for Harris than before. Baldwin has Harris down three.”
Wisconsin is considered a must-win for Harris. Losing ground in this state could significantly narrow her path to securing the necessary 270 electoral votes.
Should Trump secure victories in both Michigan and Wisconsin, his path to the presidency becomes more attainable, potentially lessening the reliance on winning Pennsylvania.
Success in these Rust Belt states, coupled with strong performance in the Sun Belt, could solidify his electoral prospects.
As the election approaches, both campaigns are expected to intensify their efforts in these battleground states.