China’s exports unexpectedly slumped in October, marking the first decline since February. Official customs data shows shipments fell 1.1% from a year earlier as U.S. demand continued to collapse under higher tariffs.
Exports to every major market except the United States managed to grow, but only by 3.1%. That was not enough to offset the massive drop in sales to America, which plunged more than 25% in October. Economists say Chinese companies had been rushing goods out earlier in the year to beat tariffs from Washington. That front-loading appears to have faded.
Bloomberg reported that Shanghai port handled the fewest containers since April. China had enjoyed steady export growth throughout the spring and summer, but the downturn surprised forecasters. Nearly every economist polled expected a gain instead of a decline.
Analysts say the tariffs are squeezing Chinese exporters and exposing deeper weakness in the economy. Domestic spending and investment remain sluggish. One economist said that if exports lose momentum, China will be forced to rely more on consumer demand at home, even though confidence is already low.
October’s shipment slowdown was broad. Exports to the European Union grew only 1%, the slowest pace since February. Sales to South Korea, Russia, and Canada dropped by double digits. China also reported a sharp slowdown in imports, which inched up just 1%. That left Beijing with a large monthly trade surplus of $90.1 billion.
The decline comes even as China tries to shift exports to new markets. Companies have expanded into Southeast Asia and Latin America, but those regions also showed weakness last month. Economists warn that the Chinese yuan’s recent strength makes exports more expensive. Mexican import restrictions and global uncertainty have also cut into demand.
Rare earth shipments were a rare bright spot. Reuters reported that China’s rare earth exports rose 9% in October from September. That was the first monthly increase after three straight declines. The jump came after Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping met in Busan, South Korea, where they reached an agreement to keep rare earths flowing. Beijing paused new export controls for one year following the meeting.
Even with the October slump, total Chinese exports for the first ten months of the year have already passed $3 trillion for the first time. But economists warn that tariffs and weakening global demand could weigh on the rest of the year. Some analysts say this quarter could see China’s slowest growth since late 2022.