Home » Memorial Day Polling: National Surveys Show Trump Ahead of Biden with Six Months Until Election

Memorial Day Polling: National Surveys Show Trump Ahead of Biden with Six Months Until Election

by Richard A Reagan

Joe Biden and Donald Trump have marked Memorial Day with promises to voters about the upcoming elections. 

During a ceremony at Arlington National Cemetery, President Biden honored the deceased as heroes who made the ultimate sacrifice for American democracy and its values.

The former president, Donald Trump, made two statements on his Truth Social platform on Monday morning in recognition of the federal holiday.

In the first post, Trump shared an image of him saluting a grave with the captions, “We can never replace them. We can never repay them, but we can always remember.”

Approximately two hours after the first, Trump posted again, extending a “Happy Memorial Day to All, including the Human Scum that is working so hard to destroy our Once Great Country, & to the Radical Left, Trump Hating Federal Judge in New York…”

Voters will return to the polls in six months. Trump has overtaken Biden in national polling, a significant reversal from the same time last year. 

In May 2023, President Biden held a slender lead over Trump in several polls.

Polls from Morning Consult, Quinnipiac University, and RMG Research showed Biden ahead by margins of one to two points.

Fast forward to 2024, and the scene looks remarkably different. Recent polls by HarrisX/Harris, Echelon Insights, and YouGov now show Trump leading by margins ranging from one to eight points.

This dramatic turnaround appears to be influenced by a mix of political and economic factors.

President Biden’s approval ratings have dropped below 40% since 2022, standing at a mere 35% currently, compared to 38% last Memorial Day.

Historically, presidents have needed at least a 50% approval rating to secure re-election.

Several key events over the past year seem to have swayed public sentiment.

Trump is facing multiple indictments, which have bolstered his support base. Hamas attacked Israel on October 7. The US is going through economic struggles under the Biden administration, particularly with soaring costs; and escalating concerns over immigration and border security. These issues have killed enthusiasm for Biden and improved the perceived appeal of Trump’s presidency.

Trump’s reevaluation by the electorate is reflected in a New York Times/Siena poll from April, which found that 42% of Americans now view his presidency as “mostly good for America,” a nine-point increase from previous figures.

Additionally, more Americans now see Trump as a “safe choice” and approve of his economic management, with increases of 11 and 10 points, respectively, in these areas.

The political arena anticipates the outcomes of Trump’s criminal trial and Hunter Biden’s potential trial for alleged gun and tax violations.

Despite Trump’s current momentum, the battle is far from over. The Democrats and the administrative state will likely intensify their efforts in the coming months. 

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