In the next 25 years, nearly 260 million Americans could be overweight or obese by 2050, according to a new study published in The Lancet.
Researchers from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington found that if current trends continue, four out of five U.S. adults will be overweight, with obesity rates expected to rise even faster than overweight rates.
The study estimates that over 213 million adults aged 25 and older will be affected, alongside 45 million children and young adults between 5 and 24.
By 2050, two-thirds of U.S. adults, one-third of teenagers, and one in five children are predicted to struggle with obesity. These projections highlight significant health risks, as excess weight is linked to conditions like heart disease, diabetes, cancer, and mental health disorders.
“Our analysis highlights decades of failure in addressing the obesity epidemic in the U.S.,” said Emmanuela Gakidou, lead author and IHME professor. “This epidemic will create a huge burden on our health system and economy, with healthcare costs soaring as obesity rates climb.”
Obesity is predicted to hit hardest in the South, with states like Mississippi, West Virginia, Arkansas, and Kentucky seeing the highest rates.
By 2050, two-thirds of men in West Virginia and Kentucky are projected to be obese. Among women, over half of young adults are expected to be obese in Mississippi, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Alabama.
Younger Americans are also increasingly affected. The report notes that teenage obesity doubled from 1990 to 2021, reaching 23% in boys and 29% in girls. By 2050, the number of overweight and obese young adults is expected to grow by 3.4 million, with California and Texas having the largest populations of obese young adults.
The trend reveals a concerning pattern: women born in the 1980s are becoming obese at earlier ages than those born in the 1960s. “This is an issue not just for one particular state,” said study co-author Marie Ng, “but for the whole nation.”
While newer drugs like Wegovy and Zepbound may help with weight management, researchers warn against relying solely on medical solutions to reverse the obesity epidemic.
These GLP-1 agonist drugs have shown effectiveness in weight loss and in reducing risks for obesity-related conditions, but they have limitations, including high costs, limited availability, and uneven insurance coverage.
“Demand for anti-obesity medication will increase, but it’s not a silver bullet,” Ng cautioned. “Equitable access to these drugs is essential, but so is focusing on broader solutions. The government needs to support policies that promote physical activity and access to healthy food, especially in underserved areas.”
Addressing America’s obesity crisis will require more than individual lifestyle changes; it demands structural adjustments.
According to Gakidou, “Reversing this trend relies on investing in walkable neighborhoods, ensuring children have access to healthy food, regulating the food industry, and developing sustainable food systems.”
With projections signaling an ever-growing healthcare challenge, American society must work together to combat this crisis, focusing on sustainable solutions to address the epidemic at its roots.