Former President Donald Trump is making significant inroads into President Joe Biden’s lead among younger voters, according to recent findings from a Harvard Youth Poll.
The poll, which surveyed 2,010 Americans aged 18 to 29 between March 14 and 21, indicates a shrinking margin that could spell concerns for the Democratic incumbent as he prepares for the upcoming election. [Source]
President Biden, who previously enjoyed a 23 percentage point lead over Trump among this demographic during the 2020 elections, now holds a narrower advantage.
The current figures show Biden leading with 45 percent to Trump’s 37 percent among voters ages 18 to 29, with 16 percent still undecided. This 8-point margin is significantly reduced from Biden’s past performance.
“Make no mistake, this is a different youth electorate than we saw in 2020 and 2022, and young voters are motivated by different things,” said John Della Volpe, polling director for the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics.
Economic issues, housing concerns, and a notable gender gap in political preferences are shaping a new landscape of youth electoral behaviour.
Despite Biden’s advantage among non-white and female young voters, where he leads by 43 and 33 points respectively, his support among young men and white voters is markedly weaker.
The President leads Trump by only 6 percentage points among young men and by a mere 3 points among white voters. The competition is fiercest among young voters without college degrees, where both candidates are neck and neck.
The enthusiasm gap is another area where Trump seems to have an edge. Over 75 percent of Trump’s young supporters say they back him enthusiastically, a stark contrast to just 44 percent of Biden’s young backers.
Trump’s position could be affected by the outcomes of his ongoing criminal trials, with Biden potentially increasing his lead should Trump be convicted. However, third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein could dilute Biden’s margins significantly.
Another critical issue is the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict. Biden’s cautious approach might not resonate well with younger voters, over half of whom support a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, a stance Biden has yet to endorse. This disconnect could potentially influence young voters’ support at the polls.
Further complicating the electoral outlook for Biden are the results from a Fox News poll, indicating Trump’s lead in Michigan and Georgia, two crucial battleground states.
Trump has a 3-point lead over Biden in Michigan (49% to 46%) and a 6-point lead in Georgia (51% to 45%). [Source]
The margins remain close in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, with both states showing the candidates tied in direct matchups.
Biden won all 4 states in the 2020 elections.