Home » Emerson Poll: Trump Leads Biden in All Key Swing States

Emerson Poll: Trump Leads Biden in All Key Swing States

by Richard A Reagan

ormer President Donald Trump has gained a significant lead over President Joe Biden in crucial battleground states, according to a recent Emerson/DemNextGen poll. 

The poll, conducted between June 30 and July 2, surveyed voters in six swing states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia.

The results indicate that Trump is ahead in each of these states by varying margins:

  • Pennsylvania: Trump leads by 5 points (48% to 43%).
  • Wisconsin: Trump is ahead by 3 points (47% to 44%).
  • Michigan: Trump has a narrow 1-point lead (45% to 44%).
  • Nevada: Trump holds a 6-point advantage (47% to 41%).
  • Arizona: Trump leads by 4 points (46% to 42%).
  • Georgia: Trump is up by 5 points (47% to 42%).

These figures reflect a growing trend in Trump’s favor, with notable increases in his lead in Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania compared to previous months.

The Emerson/DemNextGen poll underscores the strategic importance of these states, which collectively will play a critical role in determining the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. 

Doug Sosnik, a seasoned Democratic adviser, explained in the New York Times that victories in any of these states, particularly in Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin, could significantly impact Biden’s chances of securing the necessary 270 electoral votes.

This poll comes on the heels of several other surveys that have painted a grim picture for Biden. 

A Suffolk University poll revealed that 41% of Democratic voters want Biden to withdraw from the 2024 race, while only 51% wish for him to remain a candidate.

A YouGov poll showed that 72% of voters doubt Biden’s mental and cognitive health, with an equal percentage advocating for his withdrawal.

The New York Times/Siena poll and the Wall Street Journal poll both show Trump leading Biden by 6 points, marking the largest leads Trump has held in these surveys. Similarly, a CNN poll places Trump ahead of Biden, with 49% to Biden’s 43%.

Despite these challenges, the Biden campaign remains publicly optimistic. They point to other post-debate polls, such as those from Bloomberg News-Morning Consult and CBS News, which indicate Biden leading in some battleground states and suggest that the debate has had minimal impact on voter preferences. [Source]

A spokesperson for the Biden campaign asserted that internal polling shows little change in the race dynamics post-debate, with 2020 Biden supporters still in his camp.

Contrastingly, the Democrats for the Next Generation poll suggests that a younger Democratic candidate could outperform Trump by 6% and Biden by a significant 20%.

This organization, which supports prominent Democrats like Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) and Governor Gavin Newsom (D-CA), has committed $2 million to fund primary debates among potential candidates.

President Biden, however, remains steadfast in his decision to seek re-election. In a recent appearance on Morning Joe, he challenged those within his party who wish for him to step aside to run against him at the upcoming convention in Chicago.

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