Former President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris in three crucial battleground states—Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina—according to a new New York Times/Siena poll.
The poll, conducted from September 17 to 21, surveyed 2,077 likely voters across these states and revealed that Trump has gained significant ground heading into the 2024 election.
In Arizona, Trump holds a five-point lead over Harris, with 50% of likely voters supporting the former president compared to Harris’ 45%.
The situation in Georgia is similar, with Trump leading by a 49%-45% margin.
North Carolina shows a tighter race, with Trump maintaining a 49%-47% edge over the vice president.
These leads in Arizona and Georgia would be significant victories for Trump, as both states were narrowly won by President Joe Biden in 2020.
The shift in Arizona is particularly notable, as a New York Times poll conducted just a month earlier had Harris ahead by five points in the state, revealing a remarkable swing in Trump’s favor.
Several major events have occurred since August, possibly influencing voter opinions.
These include the Democratic National Convention, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropping out of the race and endorsing Trump, and endorsements for Harris from former Vice President Dick Cheney and former Congresswoman Liz Cheney.
The candidates also faced off in a highly watched debate, and there was a second assassination attempt on Trump during the polling period.
Republican pollsters remain optimistic about Trump’s chances. Pollster Daron Shaw, who works with Fox News, stated, “Our best estimates are that if Trump is within 2 points of Harris nationally, then he will likely win in the Electoral College.”
Shaw also pointed to the data showing Trump’s edge in battleground states and key counties as a promising sign for the former president’s electoral prospects.
With the general election approaching, these key states are likely to remain fiercely contested as both campaigns intensify their efforts to sway voters.