Yet another national poll finds former President Donald Trump leading the race for the White House; this time it’s a poll by The Wall Street Journal.
The poll indicates that among likely voters nationwide—including third-party and independent candidates—Trump secures 47% support, while Harris garners 45%. This is a big change from the Journal’s late August survey, which had Harris leading by two points.
While Trump’s advantage falls within the survey’s margin of error, suggesting a potentially tight race, the momentum appears to be in his favor as Election Day approaches. In a direct head-to-head matchup without third-party candidates, Trump extends his lead to 49% over Harris’s 46%.
The survey of 1,500 registered voters, conducted from October 19 to 22, reveals a notable change in voter sentiment.
Views of Harris have turned more negative since August, with her favorable rating now eight points underwater and her approval rating as vice president at 42% approval versus 54% disapproval.
Perceptions of Trump have improved, with 52% of voters approving of his previous performance in the White House compared to 48% disapproving.
These findings align with other recent national polls. A Fox News survey conducted from October 11 to 14 showed Trump holding a two-point lead over Harris. Some polls from CBS News, Marist, and USA Today/Suffolk University have indicated a slight advantage for Harris. However, most results remain within the margin of error.
Harris stepped into the Democratic presidential nominee role on July 21 after President Joe Biden’s faltering campaign led to his withdrawal.
Initially, Harris experienced a surge in fundraising and an uptick in poll numbers. She held an edge over Trump during the Democratic National Convention in late August, following the first and only debate between the two candidates in early September.
However, polls from late September and October suggest that Trump is gaining ground. “Overall, the movement toward Trump is subtle but potentially consequential, especially if he is making gains among college-educated voters,” said Chris Anderson, a veteran Democratic pollster who conducts Fox News surveys with Republican counterpart Daron Shaw. “The race has been well within the margin of error for three months, and the outcome will likely hinge on which side is more effective at getting their voters to the polls as opposed to persuasion.”
Despite the national focus, the presidency is ultimately decided by electoral votes in key battleground states. Recent surveys in seven crucial swing states—whose razor-thin margins determined the 2020 election outcome—show the race is mostly within the margin of error. The Fox News poll reported Harris holding a six-point advantage over Trump among respondents in these battleground states.
Harris maintains a significant financial lead—a critical advantage in the final stretch before the election. According to the latest federal fundraising filings, the Harris campaign raised $221.8 million in September, more than triple the $63 million raised by the Trump campaign during the same period. The largest portion of Harris’s expenditures went toward paid media and advertising efforts.
By the end of September, Harris’s campaign reported $187 million in cash on hand, compared to $119 million for Trump’s campaign. These figures do not include additional funds raised by national party committees, affiliated organizations, or super PACs supporting either candidate.